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Prediction for CME (2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-12-06T21:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43306/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-12-06T20:53Z. The CME is also seen as a full halo in SOHO LASCO C2. The source of this CME is most likely an M8.1 flare from AR 14299 (N23E02) that peaked at 2025-12-06T20:39Z. The eruption signature can be seen across all wavelengths of GOES SUVI imagery and includes dimming, opening field lines, and an EUV wave. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-12-09T07:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-12-09T04:09Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43323/1
Model Inputs:
2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=905.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2025-12-07T00:38Z
2025-12-06T19:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=33.0, Speed=381.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2025-12-07T04:47Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-09T04:09Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =27.0 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2
(kp)90=6
(kp)180=8

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-08T17:21Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-08T19:50Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-09T00:30Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251207_044600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 36.60 hour(s)
Difference: 3.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2025-12-07T19:19Z

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